In February 2026, the South Caucasus reached a historic geopolitical milestone. Vice President J.D. Vance completed a landmark tour of Yerevan and Baku—a visit by a sitting U.S. Vice President—effectively “planting the flag” for a new era of American influence.
The visit served as an operational follow-up to the August 8, 2025, Washington Peace Summit, where President Trump hosted Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev to initial a comprehensive peace agreement. Below is an analysis of this realignment, elucidating its implications for the region’s future.
The Realignment: From Mediator to Stakeholder
Vice President Vance’s visit represents a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy. As former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Robert Cekuta notes, this isn’t just a “realignment” but a “very, very strong reaffirmation” of U.S. support for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
For decades, Washington acted as a neutral referee. Now, through the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) project, it has become a primary stakeholder. Andrew D’Anieri from the Atlantic Council in Washington DC highlights that the White House now views engagement as “underwriting peace” through commercial investment rather than just deterring aggression through military threats.
Georgia: The Diplomatic “Offside”
The most striking aspect of the tour was the silence regarding and from Tbilisi. Once the “indispensable” transit hub, Georgia’s absence signals a deep frost in bilateral relations.
According to former U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Kelly, the following factors illustrate why Georgia was bypassed in favor of the Armenia-Azerbaijan corridor:
First there is a 180-Degree Turn in investrment. During the first Trump administration, Secretary Pompeo urged Tbilisi to continue building the Anaklia deep-sea port in partnership with a Western consortium, noting that China “did not have Georgia’s best interests at heart.” The “Georgian Dream” government cancelled the Western contract and awarded it to an Eastern consortium including China.
To signal a strategic realignment, Prime Minister Garibashvili signed a Strategic Partnership with China, while slandering the U.S. as a “global war party” and praising it as a “model of progress”.
While Armenia seeks an “exit ramp” from Russian influence (CSTO), Georgia has “cozied up to Iran,” with officials signing condolence books for victims of “U.S. aggression.” This led to the effective regional self-isolation.
Ambassador Ian Kelly is blunt: “The US still considers the Southern Corridor important for trade… but not through Tbilisi.” He adds that the Georgian authorities are no longer viewed as reliable partners for this Western-led architecture. “Georgian Dream made their choice and now must live with it,”-he tells us.
The TRIPP: A New Era of Connectivity
The TRIPP is the physical manifestation of this new U.S. strategy.
 Ambassador Cekuta emphasizes that for Washington, TRIPP is no longer an aspiration but a tangible link between the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Europe. In his words, it is a “real thing,” a tangible trace on the ground. The U.S. has secured a 74% controlling stake in the TRIPP Development Company (TDC) for the next 49 years, ensuring direct American oversight and longevity.
 D’Anieri notes that by creating a financial return through transit fees and U.S. construction contracts, the administration makes future military escalations unlikely because both sides now share a massive economic interest in keeping the route open. The two previously warring states now have a shared interest in prosperity with the global superpower.
Armenia’s Point of No Return?
Our interlocutors say Armenia’s move toward the West is driven by a hard lesson: Russia is no longer a reliable friend. D’Anieri points out that Moscow’s failure to back Yerevan in 2020 prompted a massive “rethinking and rebalancing.”
 A key outcome of Vance’s visit was a 123 Agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation, aimed at replacing Armenia’s Soviet-era reactor with U.S. technology—a deal worth potentially $5 billion in exports.
Towards the New “Middle Corridor”
With TRIPP, U.S. is betting it can replicate Western Europe’s post-WWII success model in the South Caucasus. Ambassador Cekuta reminds us that in the 1950s, war between France and Germany was thinkable; today it is not. By bringing U.S. capabilities—from reconnaissance drones to advanced NVIDIA GPUs—to the region, Washington aims to make the South Caucasus a secure, prosperous bridge between East and West.
