The implications of the ongoing Ukraine-related negotiations for Georgia are huge. And bleak, too. Georgia is currently one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe. Like Ukraine, it has occupied territories and has long faced Russian hybrid warfare.
Ambassador Shota Gvineria joined the Baltic Defence College as a Defence and Cyber Studies Lecturer in July 2019. He has also been a Fellow at the Economic Policy Research Center since 2017. Previously, Amb. Gvineria held various positions in Georgia’s public sector, including Deputy Secretary at the National Security Council and foreign policy advisor to the Minister of Defense.
This Op-ed is based on an article published in GEOpolitics, a leading source of analysis on foreign policy issues that relate to Georgia. You can learn more about the EU’s policy options on visa liberalization and visa suspension mechanisms by clicking on the full article link here.
The contours of a potential peace agreement in the Ukraine conflict reveal starkly divergent positions among the involved parties. Russia remains unwavering in its key demands, insisting on Ukraine’s demilitarization, neutral status, and political transformation. By requiring Ukraine to renounce NATO membership and severely limit its military capabilities, Moscow aims to ensure that Kyiv remains within its sphere of influence and cannot pose a military threat in the future. The demand for regime change remains a core objective, although not always explicitly stated, with the Kremlin signaling that any settlement would require leadership in Kyiv that is more accommodating to Russian interests.
President Donald Trump’s team clarified that it now positions itself as a neutral broker between Ukraine and Russia in pursuit of a peace deal and that Washington has its economic interests in Ukraine – rare earth elements and minerals. In the aftermath of the game-changing Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the Oval Office, European leaders are compelled to assume a more prominent role in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
The implications of the ongoing Ukraine-related negotiations for Georgia are huge. And bleak, too. Georgia is currently one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe. Like Ukraine, it has occupied territories and has long faced Russian hybrid warfare.
However, unlike Ukraine, Georgia is a battlefield state without an active war—Russia has already achieved its objectives not through direct military aggression but by successfully exploiting the Georgian Dream regime to align with its interests. This posture has effectively sidelined Georgia from discussions about regional security, creating a dangerous precedent where political subjugation replaces military occupation as a tool for asserting Russian influence even in a vastly pro-Western society.
The Georgian Dream and Bidzina Ivanishvili have deliberately distanced Georgia from critical international security discussions, banking on Russian success in Ukraine. One of the most lucid examples is that Georgian officials were not invited to the Munich Security Conference or any high-level gathering in Brussels on Ukrainian or security-related matters. As the fate of Russia’s so-called “near abroad” is being decided, Georgia is entirely absent from the table.
If Ukraine manages to secure a deal that guarantees its security and independence and paves the way for its European integration, it is highly likely that Georgia will remain in Russia’s shadow and will not be part of the West-Ukraine-Russian arrangements.
This creates a lose-lose situation for Georgia’s national interests. If Ukraine manages to secure a deal that guarantees its security and independence and paves the way for its European integration, it is highly likely that Georgia will remain in Russia’s shadow and will not be part of the West-Ukraine-Russian arrangements.
If, on the other hand, Ukraine has to swallow a bad deal, effectively legitimizing Russia’s military and political gains, the Georgian situation will be utterly hopeless as it will be a bonus prize for Moscow after having “won” Ukraine on the battlefield and in diplomatic talks.
In any scenario, Georgia’s sovereignty is at risk for the first time since regaining its independence. The shortsighted strategy of the Georgian Dream to alienate all friends and befriend an aggressor is likely to backfire and very soon prove counterproductive and hazardous for the country’s independence and sovereignty.
The West must continue to support pro-democracy forces, increasing pressure on the pro-Russian regime and keeping the European integration aspirations of Georgian society high on the agenda.
Given the Georgian Dream’s positioning, countering this threat to Georgia’s sovereignty is challenging. Still, the West must continue to support pro-democracy forces, increasing pressure on the pro-Russian regime and keeping Georgian society’s European integration aspirations high on the agenda.
The EU and the U.S. must firmly support democracy, back new elections, and ensure that Georgia’s occupied regions and its right to choose the European Union and NATO over Russia remain key issues in talks with Russia.
Yielding Georgia to Moscow’s influence or accepting it as part of Russia’s orbit would be a strategic and moral failure, bringing Russia closer to its objectives in Ukraine, the wider region, and beyond.
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